Prediction of monsoon onset date over Kerala

A model based on principle component regression (PCR) technique is used for the prediction of monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK). The details of the 6 predictors are given below.

S. No Name of the Predictor Temporal Domain Geographical Domain C.C 1975-2000
1 SE Indian Ocean SST anomaly JAN 24S-14S, 80E-100E 0.41
2 NW India Minimum Surface air Temperature Anomaly 1. Deesa 2.Rajko 3. Guna 4. Bikaner 5. Akola 6. Barmer 16th April to 15th May -0.63
3 Zonal Wind Anomaly at 1000hpa over Equatorial South Indian Ocean 1-15 may 10S-0, 80E-100E 0.52
4 OLR Anomaly Over Indo-China 1-15 may 17.5N-27.5N, 95E-105E 0.43
5 OLR Anomaly Over Southwest Pacific 1-15 may 30S,20S, 145E-160E -0.54
6 Pre-Monsoon Rainfall Peak Date Pre-monsoon South Peninsula (8N-13N, 74E-78E) 0.65

The PC analysis was applied over the predictor set containing all the 6 predictors for the 26 years (1975-2000) and first 3 principle components(PC1, PC2 and PC3) explaining about 79% of the total variability of the predictor set were retained for further analysis. A multiple linear regression model was then developed using the retained 3 PCs as the input variables and MOK as the predictand. Model was developed using the same 26 years (1975-2000). This model was then used for predicting the MOK.

file not found