Back

Long Range Forecasts Issued by IMD and Verification from 1932-1988


Year RegionForecastActual (% of LPA)
1932 PENINSULA Monsoon rainfall is not likely to be less than 87% of the average 103
NW INDIAMonsoon rainfall is not likely to be less than 80% of the average 94
1933 PENINSULA There is an 80% chance the monsoon rainfall being above average 122
NW INDIA There is an 90% chance the monsoon rainfall being above average 137
1934 PENINSULA The total amount of the monsoon rainfall will not be below 95% of the average 112
NW INDIA The total amount of the monsoon rainfall will not be below 95% of the average 106
1935 PENINSULA The evidence is conflicting and merely indicates that it will not differ from the average by more than 15% 101
NW INDIA It will neither be in large defect nor in moderate or large excess 92
1936 PENINSULA The evidence from the known factors is so conflicting that no forecast of practical value can be issued concerning this year monsoon rainfall 96
NW INDIA The evidence from the known factors is so conflicting that no forecast of practical value can be issued concerning this year monsoon rainfall 111
1937 PENINSULA Monsoon rainfall will be above 93% of the average 106
NW INDIA Monsoon rainfall will be above the average 84
1938 PENINSULA Monsoon rainfall is expected to be above 95% of the average 116
NW INDIA Monsoon rainfall is expected to be above 95% of the average 81
1939 PENINSULA Monsoon rainfall will lie between 81% and 111% of the average 89
NW INDIA Monsoon rainfall will lie between 68% and 118% of the average 72
1940 PENINSULA Monsoon rainfall is likely to be 82% to 112% of the average 104
NW INDIA Monsoon rainfall is likely to be below the average 90
1941 PENINSULA Monsoon rainfall is likely to exceed 90% of the average 81
NW INDIA Monsoon rainfall is likely to be either normal or somewhat in defect 77
1942 PENINSULA The available evidence shows that there is a 4:1 chance that the monsoon rainfall will be above normal 118
NW INDIA The available evidence shows that there is a 4:1 chance that the monsoon rainfall will be above normal 140
1943 PENINSULA Different factors give conflicting indications & it is not possible to issue any useful forecast about monsoon rainfall 101
NW INDIA Different factors give conflicting indications & it is not possible to issue any useful forecast about monsoon rainfall 103
1944 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is not likely to fall below 94% of the average 118
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is not likely to fall below 92% of the average 112
1945 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is not likely to fall below 90% of the average 115
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is not likely to fall below 87% of the average119
1946 PENINSULA There is four to one chance that the rainfall will not fall below 90% of the average 109
NW INDIA There is four to one chance that the rainfall will not fall below 86% of the average 106
1947 PENINSULA There is five to one chance that the monsoon rainfall of June to September will be above normal 110
NW INDIA There is five to one chance that the monsoon rainfall of June to September will be above normal 106
1948 PENINSULA There is a four to one chance that the total monsoon rainfall will lie between 82 & 117% of the average 92
NW INDIA There is a four to one chance that the total monsoon rainfall will lie between 79 & 128% of the average 114
1949 PENINSULA There is a four to one chance that the total monsoon rainfall will be either normal or slightly above normal 108
NW INDIA There is a four to one chance that the total monsoon rainfall will be either normal or slightly above normal 89
1950 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 96
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be not far from normal 129
1951 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be not far from normal 84
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be above normal 65
1952 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be not far from normal 82
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be not far from normal 103
1953 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 112
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly below normal 98
1954 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly above normal 118
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be about normal 92
1955 PENINSULA NOT ISSUED 115
NW INDIA NOT ISSUED 116
1956 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 123
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 114
1957 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 93
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be above normal 100
1958 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be not far from normal 117
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be not far from normal 131
1959 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 133
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be about normal 119
1960 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 95
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly above normal 103
1961 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 131
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 136
1962 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly above normal 96
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly above normal 102
1963 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 99
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 95
1964 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly above normal 112
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly above normal 109
1965 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 79
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 64
1966 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be about normal 81
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be about normal90
1967 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 104
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly above normal 109
1968 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 82
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly excess 85
1969 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be about normal 104
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly below normal 89
1970 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 122
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 105
1971 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 92
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 106
1972 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 73
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 74
1973 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 113
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 133
1974 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal to slightly above normal 78
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal to slightly below normal 82
1975 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 117
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 160
1976 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 105
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 130
1977 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 101
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 124
1978 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly below normal 107
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be nearly normal 128
1979 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slight defect (From -11 to -25) 83
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slight defect (From -11 to -25) 75
1980 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 107
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly above normal 97
1981 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 102
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 90
1982 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly below normal 88
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly below normal78
1983 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal to slightly below normal 126
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be nearly normal 114
1984 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 86
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal93
1985 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal to slightly above normal 82
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal to slightly above normal 92
1986 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 85
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 88
1987 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be nearly normal 73
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 54
1988 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 119
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 139

Back