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Long range forecasts from 1989-2014


Year RegionForecastActual (% of LPA)
1989 All India The season’s rainfall is likely to be within 98% to 106% of the LPA 101
1990 All India The season’s rainfall is likely to be within 97% to 105% of the LPA 106
1991 All India The season’s rainfall is likely to be normal but on the lower side of the normal i.e. between 90% to 98% of the LPA 92
1992 All India The season’s rainfall is likely to be 92% of LPA i.e. between 88% to 96% of LPA 92
1993 All India The season’s rainfall is likely to be 103% of LPA 101
1994 All India The season’s rainfall is likely to be 92% of LPA110
1995 All India The season’s rainfall is likely to be 97% of LPA 100
1996 All India The season’s rainfall is likely to be 96% of LPA 102
1997 All India The season’s rainfall is likely to be 92% of LPA 102
1998 All India The season’s rainfall is likely to be 99% of LPA 106
1999 All IndiaThe rainfall over the country as a whole for the entire southwest monsoon season is likely to be normal (108% of LPA) thus making the year 1999 eleventh normal monsoon year in succession 96
NW India The rainfall for the entire monsoon season of 1999 is likely to be 111% of its LPA 94
Peninsula The rainfall for the entire monsoon season of 1999 is likely to be 114% of its LPA 90
NE India The rainfall for the entire monsoon season of 1999 is likely to be 98% of its LPA104
2000 All IndiaThe rainfall over the country as a whole for the entire southwest monsoon season is likely to be normal (99% of LPA) thus making the year 2000 twelfth normal monsoon year in succession 92
NW India The rainfall for the entire monsoon season of 2000 is likely to be 102% of its LPA 95
Peninsula The rainfall for the entire monsoon season of 2000 is likely to be 98% of its LPA 89
NE India The rainfall for the entire monsoon season of 2000 is likely to be 100% of its LPA 96
2001 All IndiaIn 2001, the rainfall for the Southwest monsoon season for the country as a whole is likely to be normal (98%) thus making the year 2001 the 13th normal monsoon year in succession 92
NW India The rainfall for the entire monsoon season of 2001 is likely to be 100% of its LPA 93
Peninsula The rainfall for the entire monsoon season of 2001 is likely to be 96% of its LPA 90
NE India The rainfall for the entire monsoon season of 2001 is likely to be 100% of its LPA 94
2002 All IndiaIn 2002, the rainfall for the Southwest monsoon season for the country as a whole is likely to be normal (101%) thus making the year 2002 the 14th normal monsoon year in succession 81
NW India The rainfall for the entire monsoon season of 2002 is likely to be 104% of its LPA 74
Peninsula The rainfall for the entire monsoon season of 2002 is likely to be 99% of its LPA78
NE India The rainfall for the entire monsoon season of 2004 is likely to be 96% of its LPA 89

Verification of 2003 Long Range Forecasts:

Region Date of issueSeason Forecast(%)Actual (% of LPA)
For the country as a whole 16th April 2003 June-September Quantitative: 96% of LPA ∓ 5% 102
9th July 2003 Quantitative: 98% of LPA ∓ 4%
Country as a whole 9th July 2003 July 102% of LPA 107
NW India 9th July 2003 June-Sept 97% of LPA108
NE India 99% of LPA 102
Peninsula 100% of LPA 99

Verification of 2004 Long Range Forecasts:

Region Date of issueSeason Forecast(%)Actual (% of LPA)
For the country as a whole 15th April 2004 June-September Quantitative : 100% of LPA ∓ 5% 87
29th June 2004 Quantitative : 100% of LPA ∓ 4%
Country as a whole 29th June 2004 July 98% of LPA 81
NW India 29th June 2004 June-Sept 103% of LPA78
NE India 96% of LPA 94
Central India 103% of LPA 89
SP India 97% of LPA 85

Verification of 2005 Long Range Forecasts:

Region Date of issueSeason Forecast(%)Actual (% of LPA)
For the country as a whole 20th April2005 June-September Quantitative : 98% of LPA ∓ 5% 99
6th July 2005 Quantitative : 98% of LPA ∓ 4%
Country as a whole 6th July 2005 July 97% of LPA 114
NW India 6th July 2005 June-Sept 97% of LPA 90
NE India 95% of LPA 80
Central India 102% of LPA 110
SP India 97% of LPA 112

Verification of 2006 Long Range Forecasts:

Region Date of issueSeason Forecast(%)Actual (% of LPA)
For the country as a whole 20th April 2006 June-September Quantitative : 93% of LPA ∓ 5% 99
30th June 2006 Quantitative : 92% of LPA ∓ 4%
Country as a whole 30th June 2006 July 97% of LPA 98
NW India 30th June 2006 June-Sept 91% of LPA 94
NE India 94% of LPA 83
Central India 90% of LPA 116
SP India 97% of LPA 95

Verification of 2007 Long Range Forecasts:

Region Date of issueSeason Forecast(%)Actual (% of LPA)
For the country as a whole 19th April, 2007 June-September Quantitative : 95% of LPA ∓ 5% 105
29th June, 2007 Quantitative : 93% of LPA ∓ 4%
Country as a whole 29th June, 2007 July 95% of LPA 97
NW India 29th June, 2007 June-Sept 90% of LPA 85
NE India 98% of LPA104
Central India 96% of LPA 108
SP India 94% of LPA 126

Verification of 2008 Long Range Forecasts:

Region Date of issueSeason Forecast(%)Actual (% of LPA)
For the country as a whole 16th April, 2008 June-September Quantitative : 99% of LPA ∓ 5% 98
30th June, 2008 Quantitative : 100% of LPA ∓ 4%
Country as a whole 30th June, 2008 July 98% of LPA 83
NW India 30th June, 2008 June-Sept 96% of LPA 107
NE India 101% of LPA 94
Central India 101% of LPA 96
SP India 98% of LPA 96

Verification of 2009 Long Range Forecasts:

Region Date of issueSeason Forecast(%)Actual (% of LPA)
For the country as a whole 17th April, 2009 June-September Quantitative : 96% of LPA ∓ 5% 77
24th June, 2009 Quantitative : 93% of LPA ∓ 4%
Country as a whole 24th June, 2009 July 93% of LPA 96
All India 24th June, 2009 August 101% of LPA 73
NW India 24th June, 2009 June-Sept 81% of LPA 64
NE India 92% of LPA 73
Central India 99% of LPA 80
SP India 93% of LPA 96

Verification of 2010 Long Range Forecasts:

Region Date of issueSeason Forecast(%)Actual (% of LPA)
For the country as a whole 23rd April, 2010 June-September Quantitative : 98% of LPA ∓ 5% 102
25th June, 2010 Quantitative : 102% of LPA ∓ 4%
Country as a whole 25th June, 2010 July 98% of LPA 103
All India 25th June, 2010 August 101% of LPA 106
All India 30th JULY, 2010 August to September 107% of LPA 109
All India 27th AUGUST, 2010 September 115% of LPA 113
NW India 25th June, 2010 June-Sept 102% of LPA 112
NE India 103% of LPA82
Central India 99 % of LPA 104
SP India 102% of LPA 118

Verification of 2011 Long Range Forecasts

Region PeriodDate of issue Forecast(% of LPA)Actual (% of LPA)
All India Jun-September 19th April 98% ∓ 5% 102
All India Jun-September 21st June 95% ∓ 4%
NorthWest India Jun-September 97% ∓ 8% 107
Central India Jun-September 95% ∓ 8% 110
NorthEast India Jun-September 95% ∓ 8% 87
South Peninsula Jun-September 94% ∓ 8% 100
All India July 93% ∓ 9% 85
All India August 94% ∓ 9% 109
All India August-September 1st August 90% ∓ 8% 109
All India September 1st September 90% ∓ 15% 108

Verification of 2012 Long Range Forecasts

Region PeriodDate of issue Forecast(% of LPA)Actual (% of LPA)
All India Jun-September 26th April 99% ∓ 5% 93
All India Jun-September 22nd June 96% ∓ 4%
NorthWest India Jun-September 93% ∓ 8% 92
Central India Jun-September 96% ∓ 8% 96
NorthEast India Jun-September 99% ∓ 8% 91
South Peninsula Jun-September 95% ∓ 8% 90
All India July 98% ∓ 9% 87
All India August 96% ∓ 9% 101
All India August-September 2nd August 91% ∓ 8% 105

Verification of 2013 Long Range Forecasts

Region PeriodDate of issue Forecast(% of LPA)Actual (% of LPA)
All India Jun-September 26th April 98% ∓ 5% 106
All India Jun-September 14th June 98% ∓ 4%
NorthWest India Jun-September 94% ∓ 8% 109
Central India Jun-September 98% ∓ 8% 122
NorthEast India Jun-September 98% ∓ 8% 73
South Peninsula Jun-September 103% ∓ 8% 115
All India July 101% ∓ 9% 107
All India August 96% ∓ 9% 98
All India August-September 1st August 96% ∓ 8% 94
All India September 1st September 96% ∓ 13% 88

Verification of 2014 Long Range Forecasts

Region PeriodDate of issue Forecast(% of LPA)Actual (% of LPA)
All India Jun-September 24th April 95% ∓ 5% 88
All India Jun-September 9th June 93% ∓ 4%
NorthWest India Jun-September 85% ∓ 8% 79
Central India Jun-September 94% ∓ 8% 90
NorthEast India Jun-September 99% ∓ 8% 88
South Peninsula Jun-September 93% ∓ 8% 93
All India July 93% ∓ 9% 90
All India August 96% ∓ 9% 90
All India August-September 1st August 95% ∓ 9% 97

Verification of 2015 Long Range Forecasts

Region Period Forecast (% of LPA)Actual (% of LPA)
22nd April 2nd June (Update)
All India Jun-September 93% ∓ 5% 88% ∓ 4% 86
NorthWest India Jun-September 85% ∓ 8% 83
Central India Jun-September 90% ∓ 8% 84
NorthEast India Jun-September 90% ∓ 8% 92
South Peninsula Jun-September 92% ∓ 8% 85
All India July 92% ∓ 9% 84
All India August 90% ∓ 9% 78
All India August-September 84% ∓ 8% 77

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