The seasonal forecast system of the IMD is a probabilistic system build on a 10 member ensemble originally developed by Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) and global sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts from NCEP Coupled Forecasting System (CFS) version 2 model was used as boundary forcing for the SFM model. To provide global monthly and seasonal forecasts initialized on each month throughout the years.
Type of system: Atmospheric General Circulation Model (Numerical)
System produces probabilistic forecasts
Model type and resolution: T62L28
Ensemble size: 10 members for forecast and hindcast
Details of forecasts period: 4 months
Lead-time: Zero lead
Period of verification: three-month
Period of Hindcast: 1982-2010
LAF = Lagged Average Forecasts
Boundary conditions specifications: Forecast SST as Boundary condition (CFS-V2 SST, 40 ensemble member from first 10 days)
List of parameters being assessed: t2m, Precipitation
List of regions for each parameter. For all parameters: Northern Extratropics, Tropics, Southern Extratropics
Lead times available for each parameter. For all season: 0, 1
Period of verification: 1982 – 2010 for MAM, JJA, SON and DJF and all running Season
Number of hindcasts (available) : 30 full years (Jan.1982 - Dec.2010)
Details of verification data sets used:Precipitation: GPCP , T2m: ERA40