Seasonal Forecast Model

     The seasonal forecast system of the IMD is a probabilistic system build on a 10 member ensemble originally developed by Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) and global sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts from NCEP Coupled Forecasting System (CFS) version 2 model was used as boundary forcing for the SFM model. To provide global monthly and seasonal forecasts initialized on each month throughout the years.

Type of system: Atmospheric General Circulation Model (Numerical)

System produces probabilistic forecasts

Model type and resolution: T62L28

Ensemble size: 10 members for forecast and hindcast

Details of forecasts period: 4 months

Lead-time: Zero lead

Period of verification: three-month

Period of Hindcast: 1982-2010

LAF = Lagged Average Forecasts

Boundary conditions specifications: Forecast SST as Boundary condition (CFS-V2 SST, 40 ensemble member from first 10 days)

List of parameters being assessed: t2m, Precipitation

List of regions for each parameter. For all parameters: Northern Extratropics, Tropics, Southern Extratropics

Lead times available for each parameter. For all season: 0, 1

Period of verification: 1982 – 2010 for MAM, JJA, SON and DJF and all running Season

Number of hindcasts (available) : 30 full years (Jan.1982 - Dec.2010)

Details of verification data sets used:Precipitation: GPCP , T2m: ERA40