List of Publication on Long Range Forecasting

1. On the connection of the Himalayan snow with dry winds and seasons of droughts in India, Blanford, H.F., 1884, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, 37, 3-22.

2. Correlation in seasonal variation of climate (Introduction), G.T.Walker, 1908, Mem.India Met. Dept., 20, 117-124.

3. The liability to drought in India as compared with that in other countries, G.T.Walker, 1910, Mem. Indian Mem XXI, V, 19.

4. Correlation in seasonal variation of weather, G.T.Walker, 1918, Q.J.R.Met. Soc., 44, 223-224.

5. Correlation in seasonal variation of weather, Walker, G.T., 1923, Memoirs of India Met. Dept, XXIV, 75-131.

6. Correlation in seasonal variation of weather, IX, A further study of world weather, Walker, G.T., 1924, Memoirs of India Met Dept, XXIV, 275-332.

7. Correlation in seasonal variation of weather, X, Applications to seasonal forecasting in India, Walker, G.T., 1924, Memoirs of India Met Dept, XXIV, 333-345.

8. Methods of forecasting monsoon and winter rainfall in India, S.K.Bannerji, 1950, Ind.J.Met and Geophys., 4, 343-346.

9. Monsoon seasonal forecasting, C.W.B.Normand, 1953, Q.J.R.Met.Soc., 79, 463-473.

10. Long range weather forecasting, P.Jagannathan, 1974, IMD Forecasting Manual, Part IV-14, IMD Pune.

11. Stochastic Dynamic Model for long range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall in Peninsular India, V. Thapliyal,, 1982, Mausam, 33, 399-404.

12. Prediction of Indian droughts with lower stratospheric winds, V.Thapliyal, Mausam, 35, 367-374.

13. Long range prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India: Evolution and development of new models, V.Thapliyal, 1990, Mausam, 41, 334-346.

14. Preliminary and final long range forecast of seasonal monsoon rainfall over India, V.Thapliyal, 1997, J.Arid Environment, 36, 385-403.

15. Relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and sea surface temperature anomalies over equatorial central and eastern Pacific, V.Thapliyal, M.Rajeevan, S.R.Patil, 1998, Mausam, 49, 229-234.

16. Long-range forecast of summer monsoon rainfall over India: Evolution and development of power transfer model, V.Thapliyal, 2001, Proc. Ind.National.Sci.Acad., 67A, 343-359.

17. Updated operational model for long range forecasts of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, V.Thapliyal and M.Rajeevan, 2003, Mausam, 54, 495-504.

18. Parametric and power regression models: New approach to long range forecasting of monsoon rainfall in India, V. Gowariker, V.Thapliyal, G.S.Mandal, N.Sen Roy and D.R.Sikka, 1989, Mausam, 40, 115-122.

19. A power regression model for long range forecast of southwest monsoon rainfall over India, V. Gowariker, V.Thapliyal, R.P.Sarker, G.S.Mandal and D.R.Sikka, 1991, Mausam, 42, 125-130.

20. Long range prediction of monsoon onset over Kerala, M. Rajeevan and D.P.Dubey, 1995, Mausam, 46, 287-290.

21. Upper tropospheric circulation anomalies over Asia-Pacific region associated with the inter-annual variation of Indian summer monsoon, D. S. Pai and M. Rajeevan, 1998, Mausam, 49, 461-468.

22. Spatial and temporal relationships between global land surface air temperature anomalies and Indian summer monsoon, M.Rajeevan, D.S.Pai and V. Thapliyal, 1999, Met and Atm. Physics, 66,157-171.

23. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) Models for long range forecasts of sub-divisional monsoon rainfall over India, M. Rajeevan, V.Thapliyal, S.R.Patil and U.S.De, 1999, Mausam, 50, 145-152.

24. Forecasting Indian summer monsoon rainfall by a Principal Component Neural Net work model, Guhathakurta, P., M. Rajeevan,. and Thapliyal, V., 1999, Met and Atmos Physics, 71,255-266.

25. New Models for Long range forecasts of summer monsoon rainfall over NW India and Peninsular India, M. Rajeevan, P.Guhathakurta and V.Thapliyal, 2000, Met and Atmos. Phys.,73, 211-225.

26. Prediction of Indian summer monsoon: Status, Problems and prospects, M. Rajeevan, Current Science, 2001, 81, 101- 107.

27. Predictive relationships between Indian Ocean Sea surface temperatures and Indian summer monsoon rainfall, M. Rajeevan, D.S.Pai and V. Thapliyal, 2002, Mausam, 53, 337-348.

28. Teleconnection of SST and OLR anomalies over Atlantic Ocean with Indian summer monsoon, A.K.Srivastava, M. Rajeevan and Ruta Kulkarni, 2002, Geophys. Res. Letters., Vol.29, No.8.125-1, 125-4.

29. Winter Surface Pressure anomalies over Eurasia and Indian summer monsoon rainfall, M.Rajeevan, 2002, Geophys.Res.Letters., Vol. 29, No.10, 94-1,94-4.

30. Monsoon Prediction, V.Thapliyal and M. Rajeevan, 2002, In the Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, (Eds. J.Holton), Academic Press. New York. pp. 1391-1400.

31. Role of ITCZ over North Indian Ocean and Pre-Meiyu front in modulating July rainfall over India, Srivastava, A.K., M. Rajeevan and S.R. Shirsagar, 2004, J.Climate, 17,673-678.

32. IMD's New Operational Models for Long Range Forecast of South-west Monsoon Rainfall over India and their verification for 2003, M. Rajeevan, D.S.Pai, S.K.Dikshit and R.R.Kelkar, 2004, Current Science, 86, 422-431.

33. Tropical Pacific Upper Ocean heat content variations and Indian summer monsoon rainfall, M.Rajeevan and M.McPhaden, 2004, Geophys.Res.Letters, 31, DOI 10.1029/2004GL020631.

34. Monsoon prediction? Why yet another failure?, Sulochana Gadgil, M.Rajeevan and Ravi Nanjundiah, 2005, Current Science, 88, 9, 1389, 1400.

35. Empirical Prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with different lead periods based on global SST anomalies, D.S.Pai and M.Rajeevan, 2006, Meteor and Atmos.Phys, 92, 33-43.

36. New Statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India, M.Rajeevan, D.S.Pai, R.Anil Kumar and B.Lal, Climate Dynamics, 2006, DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-019706.

37. Pai. D. S. and Rajeevan, M., 2006, Empirical prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall with different lead time periods based on global SST anomalies, Meteorol. Atmos. Physics, V92, pp33-43.

38. “Did unusual warming over the mid and higher latitudes cause unprecedented failure of southwest monsoon during July 2002?” A.K. Srivastava, P. Guhathakurta, M. Rajeevan, S.K. Dikshit and S.R. Kshirsagar –Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2007, Vol. 96, 3-4, pp. 193-201.

39. Rajeevan M, Pai DS, Anil Kumar R, and Lal B, 2007, New statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India, Climate Dynamics, V28, pp813-828.

40. Rajeevan M and Pai D. S., 2007, On the El Niño-Indian monsoon predictive relationships, Geophysical Research Letters, V34, L04704, doi:10.1029/2006GL028916.

41. Anil Kumar R, Rajeevan M and Pai D. S, 2008, Seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using local polynomial based non-parametric regression model, Mausam, V59, pp77-86.

42. Anil Kumar, R, Pai D. S, and Rajeevan M, 2008, Relationship between lower stratospheric circulation and Indian summer monsoon rainfall : Implication for long range forecasts, Mausam, V59, pp173-184.

43. Rajeevan, M and Latha Sridhar 2008, Inter-annual relationship between Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies and Indian Summer Monsoon, Geophysical Research Letters, 35. L21704_1-L21704_7. ISSN 0094-8276.

44. Development of high resolution daily gridded temperature data set (1969-2005) for the Indian region. A.K. Srivastava, M. Rajeevan and S.R. Kshirsagar, published in Atmospheric Sci. Lett., 2009, DOI; 10.1002/a.s.l.232.

45. Pai. D. S. and Rajeevan, M., 2009, Prediction of summer monsoon onset over Kerala, India, J. Earth Syst. Sci. 118, No. 2, pp1–13.

46. RameshKumar, M.R., Krishnan, R., Sankar, S., Unnikrishnan, A.S and Pai, D.S., 2009, Increasing trend of `Break-Monsoon` conditions over India: Role of ocean-atmosphere processes in the Indian Ocean, IEEE Geosci. Remote Sens. Lett., 6(2), pp332-336.

47. “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: An Assessment” by Thomas R. Knutson, John McBride, Johnny Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Chris Landsea, Isaac Held, James Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and Masato Sugi , Nature Geoscience, March 2010, Vol 3., pp. 157-163.

48. ‘Climate of South Asia’ by M. Rajeevan A.K.Srivastava and J. Revadekar published in the ‘State of the Climate in 2009”- A special supplement to the Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, July 2010, Vol. 91, No. 7 , pp.176-178

49. ‘Climate of South Asia’ by M. Rajeevan A.K.Srivastava, L. Zubar and J. Revadekar published in the ‘State of the Climate in 2010”- A special supplement to the Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, June 2011, Vol. 92 , No. 6 , pp.217-219.

50. Pai. D.S., Jyoti Bhate, O.P.Sreejith and H.R.Hatwar, 2011, Impact of MJO on the intraseasonal variation of the summer monsoon rainfall over India, Climate Dynamics, Volume 36, N1-2, pp41-55, DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0634-4.

51. Soni, V. K., G. Pandithurai and Pai, D. S., 2011, Evaluation of long-term changes of solar radiation in India, Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.2294.

52. Pai, D. S., O.P.Sreejith, S. G. Nargund, Madhuri Musale, and Ajit Tyagi, 2011, Present Operational Long Range Forecasting System for Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over India and its Performance During 2010, Mausam, V62, pp179-196.

53. Pai. D. S., Latha Sridhar, Pulak Guhathakurta and H. R. Hatwar, 2011, District-Wise Drought Climatology Of The Southwest Monsoon Season over India Based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Nat. Hazards, V59, pp 1797-1813. (Impact Factor: 1.64).

54. ‘Climate of South Asia’ by A.K. Srivastava, M. Rajeevan, L. Zubar and J. Revadekar published in the ‘State of the Climate in 2011”- A special supplement to the Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, July 2012, Vol. 93, No. 7, pp.207-210.

55. Kumar A., D. S. Pai, J. Singh, R. Singh and D. Sikka, 2012, Statistical Models for Long-range Forecasting of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over India Using Step Wise Regression and Neural Network, Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, Vol. 2 No. 3, pp. 322-336. doi: 10.4236/acs.2012.23029.

56. Karumuri Ashok, C. Nagaraju, A. Sen Gupta, D. S. Pai. 2012, Decadal changes in the relationship between the Indian and Australian summer monsoons. Climate Dynamics 02/2012; DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1625-4.(Impact Factor: 4.23)

57. Mujumdar, M., Preethi, B., Sabin, T., Ashok, K., Saeed, S., Pai, D. S, et al. 2012, The Asian summer monsoon response to the La Niña event of 2010. Meteorological Applications, 19, 216-225. doi:10.1002/met.1301.

58. Niranjan Kumar, K. Rajeevan, M. Pai, D. S. Srivastava, A.K. Preethi, B., 2013, On the observed variability of monsoon droughts over India, Weather and Climate Extremes, pp42-50.

59. ‘Climate of South Asia’ by A.K. Srivastava, J. Revadekar and M. Rajeevan published in the ‘State of the Climate in 2012” - A special supplement to the Bulletin of American Meteorological Society , August 2013, Vol. 94, No. 8 ,pp.188-190.

60. “Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century The HadEX2 dataset” by M. G. Donat, L. V. Alexander, H. Yang, I. Durre, R. Vose, R. J. H. Dunn, K. M. Willett,E. Aguilar, M. Brunet,1 J. Caesar, B. Hewitson, C. Jack, A. M. G. Klein Tank,A. C. Kruger, J. Marengo, T. C. Peterson, M. Renom, C. Oria Rojas, M. Rusticucci,J. Salinger, A. S. Elrayah,S. S. Sekele, A. K. Srivastava, B. Trewin, C. Villarroel,L. A. Vincent, P. Zhai, X. Zhang, and S. Kitching - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2013, Vol.118, 1-16 , doi;10.1002/jgrd.50150.

61. “On the Observed Variability of Monsoon Droughts over India” by K. Niranjan Kumar, M. Rajeevan, D.S.Pai, A.K.Srivastava and Preeti Bhaskar - Journal Weather and Climate Extremes (WACE) , 2013, Vol. I, pp. 42-50 (Sept.)

62. “Impact of variational assimilation technique on simulation of a Heavy Rainfall event over Pune” by V.Yesubabu , Sahidul Islam , D.R.Sikka, Akshara Kaginalkar, K.Sagar and A.K.Srivastava. - Published online in Natural Hazards on 7th Nov. 2013, doi 10.1007/S11069-013-0933-2.

63. “Examining pathways for modulation of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) by extra-tropical tropospheric temperature pattern” by A.K. Srivastava, M. Rajeevan and S.R. Kshirsagar - Feb. 2014, Published online in International Journal of Climatology, DOI :10.1002 / joc.3940

64. ‘Climate of South Asia’ by A.K.Srivastava, J. Revadekar and M. Rajeevan published in the ‘State of the Climate in 2013”- A special supplement to the Bulletin of American Meteorological Society , July 2014, Vol. 95 , No. 7 ,pp.201-203.

65. “Has influence of extratropical waves in modulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) increased?” by A.K. Srivastava, Somenath Dutta, S.R. Kshirsagar and Kavita Srivastava, 2014, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 123, 3, pp. 445-456.

66. D. S. Pai, Smitha Anil Nair and A. N. Ramanathan, 2014, Long term climatology and trends of heat waves over India during the recent 50 years (1961-2010), Mausam, p585.

67. Pai. D. S., Latha Sridhar, M Rajeevan, O. P. Sreejith, N. S. Satbhai, and B. Mukhopadhyay, 2014, Development of a new high spatial resolution (0.25× 0.25) long period (1901-2010) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data sets over the region, Mausam, p1-18.

68. D.S. Pai, Latha Sridhar, M. R. Badwaik, M. Rajeevan 2014, Analysis of daily rainfall events over India using a new long period (1901-2010) high resolution (0.25X0.25) gridded rainfall data set, Clim Dyn, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2307-1.

69. Ali, H., V. Mishra, and D. S. Pai, 2014, Observed and projected urban extreme rainfall events in India, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 12,621–12,641, doi:10.1002/2014JD022264.

70. Satya Prakash, Ashis K. Mitra, Imran M. Momin, D. S. Pai, E. N. Rajagopal, and S. Basu, 2014, Comparison of TMPA-3B42 versions 6 and 7 Precipitation Products with Gauge based Data over India for the South-West Monsoon Period, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0024.

71. Mitra Ashis K., Satya Prakash, Imranali M. Momin, D. S. Pai and A.K. Srivastava, 2014, Daily Merged Satellite Gauge Real-Time Rainfall Dataset for Indian Region, Vayumandal, 40(1-4), pages.

72. “Has modulation of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall by Sea Surface Temperature of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, weakened in recent years?” by A.K.Srivastava, O P Srijith, S R Kshirsagar and Kavita Srivastava, Jan 2015, Published online in Climate Dynamics, DOI :10.1007/s00382-015-2470-z.

73. Kailas Sonawane, O. P. Sreejith, D. R. Pattanaik, Mahendra Benke, Nitin Patil and D. S. Pai, 2015, Simulation of Indian summer monsoon using the Japan Meteorological Agency’s seasonal ensemble prediction system, Journal of Earth System Science, V 124, No. 2, pp. 321–333.

74. Theja, P. K., O. P. Sreejith, and D. S. Pai. "Monsoon teleconnections over Indian and Pacific Oceans in Japan Meteorological Agency model simulation." International Journal of Climatology (2015).