LONG RANGE FORECASTING (LRF) DIVISION

Mandate

(i) To prepare and issue operational extended and long range forecasts for the country.

(ii) Grid point rainfall data over the country: Prepares daily grid point rainfall data at two different high resolution spatial grids (1oX 1o and 0.5oX 0.5o). The daily, monthly and seasonal rainfall maps prepared based on these data are available through IMD, Pune website (imdpune@gov.in).

Additional Activities:

(i) Experimental dynamical forecasting system based on atmospheric general circulation model: The Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) originally developed at the Experimental Climate Prediction Centre (ECPC), Scripps Institute of Oceanography, USA is used for this purpose. Presently the dynamical forecasting system is used to generate monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasts for the southwest monsoon season.

(ii) 5-20 days OLR anomaly forecasts for the south west monsoon season.

(iii) Daily grid point rainfall data over the country at two different high resolution spatial grids (1oX1o and 0.5oX 0.5o) are supplied to required users and researchers. Daily grid point data at 1oX1o grid is available from 1951 onwards and that at 0.5oX 0.5o is available from 1971 onwards.

(iv) Provision and regular upgradation of internet facilities for all the IMD, offices for operational, research and administrate activities.

Research and Development

(i) Research on the following topics:

a) Climate variability and predictability studies for the Indian Region.

b) Development of empirical models for the long range and extended range prediction.

c) Sensitivity studies using dynamical models.

d) Coupled modeling.

e) Experimental forecasts of rainfall over smaller regions (at subdivision scale) based on statistical downscaling and recalibration of dynamical model simulations.

f) Impact of ENSO, MJO and IOD on monsoon.


(ii) Publishes research reports on monsoon and other related climate events.

(iii) Preparation of high resolution gridded daily rainfall

Future Plans/ Modernization etc.

i. Improvement of the existing operational models

ii. Development of dynamical model forecasting system for the all the seasons (for both temperature and rainfall).

iii.Establish coupled model system using international and national collaboration.

iv. Forecasts at smaller regions (district/ subdivisions wise) using statistical downscaling and recalibration techniques.

v. Development of operational forecasting system for intraseasonal variability of monsoon rainfall.

vi. Extend LRF services to entire south Asia.

vii.Development of daily rainfall at very high resolution spatial grid 0.25oX 0.25o

Annual Calendar of Major events, seminars, users interaction Training:

Tentative annual time schedule for issuing various operational/experimental long range forecast/ outlook from the LRF division is given below:


S. No Forecast to be issuedTentative time of issue
1 First Stage Forecast for the Season (June –September) Rainfall over the country as a Whole Mid April
2 Date of Monsoon Onset over Kerala Around 15th May
3 Second Stage Forecast consisting of update for the first stage forecast, forecast for monthly rainfall over the country as a whole for the months of July & August, and the season rainfall over four geographical regions of the country. Second half of June
4 Mid Monsoon Review and Outlook for Second half of Season (August-September). End week of July
5 Outlook for September Rainfall over the country as a whole. End week of August
6 End of Season Report for 2010 Southwest Monsoon. First half of October
7 NE Monsoon Season (October to December) rainfall for south Peninsula. End of September
8 Winter season (Jan- March) precipitation over north India. End of December
9 Verification of NE Monsoon Season (October to December) rainfall for south Peninsula. First half of January
10 Verification of Winter season (Jan- March) precipitation over north India. First half of April

Organization Diagram

Schematic diagram of LRF Division showing various activities of the Division is given below:
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